Dr. Samuel Jonson Sutanto

Jean Gohin just finished his thesis with me and Inge de Graaf with the title: A Global Analysis of Future Compound Flood-Drought Events under Climate Change. Among many interesting findings from his thesis, he found that the transition between flood to drought and drought to flood events vary, depending on the locations. For example, in the northern hemisphere, the transition from drought to flood will be longer (less abrupt) in the future. On the other hand, the compound drought to flood in the southern will be more abrupt. Interestingly, when we look at the transition between flood to drought, the occurrence of droughts after flood events will be earlier across the globe.

What will be the implication of the future changes in consecutive events of flood and drought for water management and policy? Jean study highlights the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to address shifting compound flood–drought dynamics under climate change. The projected longer transition from drought to flood in the northern hemisphere suggests that water managers may have more time to prepare for flood risks following dry periods, but also suggest the necessity of maintaining flexible reservoir operations to capitalize on this lead time. In contrast, the more abrupt drought-to-flood transitions in the southern hemisphere will require rapid-response mechanisms, stronger integration of flood and drought management plans, and investments in infrastructure capable of withstanding sudden hydrological shifts. The earlier onset of droughts after flood events globally calls for policies that prevent overreliance on temporary water abundance, ensuring that recovery strategies, allocation rules, and groundwater recharge initiatives account for the quick reemergence of scarcity. Together, these insights emphasize the importance of developing adaptive, anticipatory, and cross-sectoral water governance frameworks that can respond to increasingly complex compound flood and drought extremes.

Hopefully we can soon publish Jean’s findings in an international journal. Finger crossed.